Tuesday, January 8, 2008

NH Poll: 7News/Suffolk University Jan 8th 2007

In the Republican Primary, the 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll shows

Mitt Romney maintaining a slim lead, within the margin of error, leaving the race essentially where it has been for the last three days: a dead heat. Romney (30 percent) led John McCain (26 percent), followed by Mike Huckabee (13 percent), Rudy Giuliani (11 percent), Ron Paul (5 percent), Fred Thompson (2 percent) and Duncan Hunter (1 percent). Ten percent were undecided.

Daily Difference

January 8 January 7 Percent Change
Mitt Romney 30 percent 30 percent No Change
John McCain 26 percent 27 percent - 1

Mike Huckabee 13 percent 9 percent +4
Rudy Giuliani 11 percent 10 percent +1
Ron Paul 5 percent 8 percent - 3
Undecided 10 percent 13 percent - 3

“The Republican race is destined to be decided by the turnout of New Hampshire’s notoriously maverick voters,” said Paleologos. “Mitt Romney’s lead over John McCain is fairly static at four percent. Mike Huckabee has seen an uptick of four percentage points, setting up a contest for third place with Rudy Giuliani, while Ron Paul’s support has declined from eight percent to five percent.”

“It would be ironic if independent voters wind up deciding the winner of the Republican contest, but with nineteen percent of independents who say they will vote Republican still undecided, that just may well be what happens,” he said.

The poll released today is the eighth and final in a series of daily tracking polls conducted by 7NEWS/Suffolk University leading up to today’s Primary. Each poll consists of 250 likely voters statewide each day from the Democratic and Republican Primaries. A two-day rolling average of 500 Democrats and 500 Republicans has been reported every morning at 6:30 a.m. on “7NEWS Today in New England.”

Suffolk University Adjunct Professor David Paleologos is in Manchester today based at the Radisson Hotel and available to comment on the latest trends and demographics and to offer political analysis. He may be reached at 781-290-9310 or 646-228-4448.

The 7NEWS-Suffolk University tracking poll was conducted Jan. 6 and Jan. 7. The margin of error for each party subsample of 500 respondents is +/- 4.38 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. The 1,000-respondent margin of error is +/- 3.10 percent. All respondents were likely voters for the respective New Hampshire presidential primaries on Jan. 8, 2008. Charts, marginals and 54 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site -- www.suffolk.edu/research/18108.html -- today, Jan. 8, 2008.

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