Romney up, Mccain down in Michigan Poll

Romney leads McCain in Michigan poll

By: Mike Allen
Jan 12, 2008 10:25 PM EST
Mitt Romney
The race looks tight and volatile ahead of Tuesday’s primary, which could knock a candidate out of the race.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who badly needs to win Tuesday's Michgian primary, has an 8-point lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona in a McClatchy/MSNBC poll of Michigan voters to be released Sunday.

Romney had a narrower lead in a Detroit Free Press poll and was tied in a Detroit News poll.

After polls in New Hampshire failed to foresee Tuesday’s decisive win by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), campaigns and the press are reluctant to put much stock in polls. It’s clear that the races for both presidential nominations are fluid, with big swings possible in the final hours before voting.

But polls help provide morale and momentum for the final hours, and Romney could use the good news. He has cut back his advertising in South Carolina and has staked his candidacy on Michigan, his native state.

The McClatchy/MSNBC poll puts Romney at 30 percent, McCain at 22 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 17 percent, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee at 7 percent, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 6 percent and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 5 percent.

McClatchy Newspapers reported: “Romney led McCain by 2 to 1 among voters who ranked the economy and jobs their top concern. He led Huckabee by a slightly greater margin among those voters. He also led McCain by 2 to 1 among likely voters who called themselves Republicans.”

The analysis continued: “McCain owes his solid standing to independents and Democrats, taking 38 percent of their support, while Huckabee had 22 percent and Romney had 18 percent. ... Evangelical Christians represented 46 percent of the likely primary vote in the poll, and Huckabee got 31 percent of their support while Romney got 23 percent.”

The poll of 400 likely Republican primary voters in Michigan was conducted by Mason-Dixon by telephone from Wednesday through Friday. The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The Detroit Free Press/Local 4 Michigan poll has Romney at 27 percent, John McCain at 22 percent and Mike Huckabee at 16 percent. The poll found that Romney's core of support is in the Detroit metropolitan area, where he has a 2-1 advantage.

The Free Press reported: “Of the 40 percent who named the economy as their top concern, Romney had a 42 percent-25 percent advantage over McCain. McCain wins by about the same margin over Romney among the 24 percent of Republican voters whose top issue is the Iraq war.”

The analysis continued: “Huckabee is a favorite among GOP voters motivated by faith. Thirty-eight percent said it matters if the next president is a devout Christian, the highest number among attributes. Among that 38 percent, Huckabee leads Romney by a small margin. Voters who identify themselves as evangelical comprise 29 percent of the Republican primary vote, and they favor Huckabee almost 2-1 over Romney.”

The telephone survey of 600 people who said they definitely will vote has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, and was conducted Wednesday through Friday, according to the newspaper.

The Detroit News found Romney and McCain dueling for the lead. The Detroit News/WXYZ Action News poll shows McCain with 27 percent, Romney at 26 percent, and Huckabee at 19 percent, according to the newspaper.

The newspaper reported: “The poll of 604 likely GOP primary voters, conducted Wednesday through Saturday, suggests Tuesday's result likely will depend on who treks to the poll. The error margin is four percentage points. Even now, the Republican race remains fluid. Just over half of likely voters in that race say they are very certain of their vote; the other 45 percent are undecided or could change their preference.”