Mitt Romney leads GOP field in Iowa

By: Jonathan Roos-Des Moines Register
May 20, 2007 10:13 AM EST

Mitt Romney has sprinted ahead of presidential competitors John McCain and Rudy Giuliani in a new Iowa Poll of likely Republican caucus participants.

The Des Moines Register poll shows Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, is the top choice of 30 percent of those who say they definitely or probably will attend the leadoff Iowa caucuses in January.

McCain, a U.S. senator from Arizona, nips former New York Mayor Giuliani for second place — 18 percent to 17 percent.

Other polls taken in Iowa this month, presenting a different lineup of candidates that included Newt Gingrich and Fred Thompson, have shown Giuliani, McCain and Romney bunched together. The former U.S. House speaker and former Tennessee senator have said they are considering presidential bids but have not taken steps toward running.

Giuliani leads in recent national surveys of Republican voters, although there are has been some slippage in his support at a time when his position in support of abortion rights has come under increased scrutiny from the news media and his GOP rivals.

The Iowa Poll, taken May 12-16, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

During the polling period, Republican presidential candidates took part in a nationally televised debate, the second of the year.

None of the other eight GOP candidates on the Iowa Poll list have support in double digits.

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson places a distant fourth with 7 percent of likely caucus participants saying he is their first choice. Presidential preferences include people leaning toward supporting a candidate.

The race at this early stage could take many twists and turns before the Iowa finish line is reached in January.

Twelve percent of those polled are undecided or declare themselves uncommitted. Among those stating a preference, 87 percent say they could still be persuaded to support another candidate as their first choice.

Romney’s front-runner status in the new Des Moines Register poll could stem in part from solid performances in the two national debates, his work in building a network of supporters in Iowa, his fundraising prowess and money spent on TV ads, said J. Ann Selzer, The Register’s pollster.

“His success raising money seems to have aroused caucusgoers’ interest, prompting them to take a serious look at the candidate,” Selzer said. “He’s helped by the top two qualifications Republican caucusgoers are looking for in a candidate — experience as a governor and as CEO.”

The poll shows Romney is regarded favorably by 74 percent of likely caucus participants and unfavorably by just 13 percent, with the rest unsure how they feel about him.

He does better in the poll among older Iowans, who tend to be more faithful in attending the caucuses, than he does among younger ones. Roughly one-third of those 55 or older make him their first choice, compared with support from about one-fifth of adults younger than 35.

Republican caucusgoers place a premium on a candidate who has experience as a governor, with 60 percent saying they are more likely to support a person with that experience on their resume.

“Just being elected out east, where the hard core of the Democrats are, speaks pretty highly of” Romney, said poll participant Edward Green, 57, of Davenport.
“He’s got a good family and his children are on the right track,” said Green, a minister who does missions work for Assemblies of God International.

Green wonders, however, whether Romney — a Mormon — can win the Republican nomination because of his religion. “People will poke and prod at his religion — a lot like they did with Kennedy in the ’60s.” John F. Kennedy, a Democrat, was the first Catholic elected president.

Most likely Republican caucus participants — 71 percent — say it makes no difference in their choice of a candidate if that person would be elected the first Mormon president. However, 22 percent say that would make their support for the candidate less likely.

Six percent say electing the first Mormon president would make them more apt to support that person and 1 percent are unsure.

McCain, the second-place finisher in the Iowa Poll, is making a full-throttled effort to win the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses after bypassing them eight years ago, when George W. Bush went on to win the White House for the Republicans.

Giuliani, in third place by a nose, is making his first bid for the presidency after building a national following with the former New York mayor’s handling of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on his city. The poll shows the pair of candidates are the best known among the Republican field in Iowa, with nearly every likely caucus participant having an opinion about McCain and Giuliani.

Like Romney, they are viewed favorably by most caucusgoers, although one-fourth have negative feelings about them.

Poll participant Jaleyn Dobbs, 54, of Creston, likes McCain’s views on the war in Iraq.

“He, being a veteran, understands what is going on,” said Dobbs, a nurse who provides respite care for people with Alzheimer’s disease. McCain was a prisoner of war during the Vietnam War.

“I don’t feel that President Bush rushed to judgment. I feel he did what he did to protect us,” Dobbs said. She has a son in the Air National Guard who was stationed for a time in the Middle East.

The poll shows that being a war veteran is a significant political asset.

Nearly one-half of likely Republican caucus participants say they are more likely to support a candidate with that experience.

Other poll findings point, however, to some softness in McCain’s support. Among Iowans who definitely will attend the Republican caucuses, which is a firmer commitment than those saying they probably will attend, McCain slips to third place behind Giuliani.

McCain also trails Romney and Giuliani among likely caucus participants who say they plan to attend the Republican Party’s August straw poll in Ames — an early test of the candidates’ ability to mobilize their Iowa supporters. Another plus for Giuliani is that likely poll participants choose him slightly more often than Romney and McCain as their second choice for the Republican presidential nomination.

Poll respondent Dick Ernst, 73, of Cedar Rapids, makes Giuliani his top choice, saying he “exudes leadership and he cares for people.” Ernst, a retired Wesleyan Church minister, said he followed Giuliani’s career as New York mayor. “He certainly turned that place around, even before 9-11.”

While Ernst strongly disapproves of abortion, he said he can accept Giuliani’s position that women have a legal right to choose an abortion. “He’s not for abortion and I appreciate that … He would nominate judges who would be strict constructionists.”

The poll shows nearly three-fourths of likely caucus participants believe abortion should be illegal. Within that large group, 14 percent give the nod to Giuliani, which is a little lower than his overall level of support at 17 percent.

Backing for Romney and McCain from within the anti-abortion group matches their overall level of support.

Ernst, the retired minister, said he’s disappointed that Giuliani has had three marriages, although Giuliani is not alone among the nation’s political leaders who have had failed marriages.

The Iowa Poll indicates that could be a significant political liability for Giuliani. Fifty-five percent of likely Republican caucus participants are less likely to support a candidate who’s had messy family relationships. The eight GOP candidates with single-digit support in the poll still have nearly eight months to boost their name recognition and punch through with their messages.

Tommy Thompson, the former Wisconsin governor who placed fourth in the poll, is regarded favorably by a 57 percent majority of likely caucus participants. Sixteen percent view him unfavorably and the rest are undecided.

With 7 percent of caucusgoers making him their top choice for the party’s nomination, Thompson does a little better than Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas at 5 percent; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado at 4 percent each; and Chicago businessman John Cox, U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter of California, and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore at 1 percent each. The poll did not find measurable support for U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas.