Saturday, January 19, 2008

Forget about South Carolina for a second

In case people were wondering. Which state can statistically put this primary to rest? Not South Carolina, Not Nevada, and Not New Jersey. But..... Florida.

Florida's primary election will be the next state after South Carolina where 57 delegate votes go to one winner (winner take all system). Looks like Florida has become the NEW New Hampshire of 2008.

Below is a recent poll taken a couple days ago, we will continue to track and record these numbers as the days go on. Right now we are looking at a statistical dead heat. This is do or die for Rudy and McCain if they hope to retake the delegate lead or at least stay competitive with Mitt Romney. (Sidenote: SC is do or die for Fred Thompson)

Florida Republican Primary Result
InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey Conducted for the Florida Chamber of Commerce January 15-16

Republican Primary

446 registered voters likely to vote in Tuesday Jan. 29 primary. Weighted for age, race, gender, and party affiliation. Marin of error +/4.5%.

Giuliani: 21%

McCain: 20%

Romney: 20%

Huckabee: 13%

Thompson: 7%

Paul: 6%

Undecided: 13%

InsiderAdvantage/Creators Syndicate Matt Towery: “This is anyone’s race. My guess is that the candidate who emerges the winner from South Carolina will receive another one of these two-or-three day “bumps,” which might hold through the Jan. 29 Florida primary.”

1 comment:

Christopher said...

If you trust polls which I don't really, then comparing this one to the most recent one of Florida is outstanding for Romney, Rudy is dropping like a rock and McCain is stable.
McCain doesn't seem to be getting any boost out of South Carolina, in which I think he only won the state because of the bitterness after the 2000 election and his supporters got out in full force, which I am glad they did, anything to get Huck out of the race.